Local home price cycles—not national trends—drive equity, negative equity, and default risk, which means mortgage models need local price paths, not national aggregates, to get it right.

Applying ForeScore to a 30-million-loan mortgage dataset improved pool valuation by up to 380 basis points.

Borrowers with identical credit scores can carry up to five times the default risk depending on where they live.

Mortgage default is a local event, not a national one: and models built on national averages miss the risks that matter most.