Home buyers still expect prices to rise as fast as before, but household growth is slowing to its lowest pace in a century. The gap between promised and likely growth is a mortgage risk, and it’s concentrated in supply-constrained metros like Los Angeles, San Jose, Boston, Seattle and Miami.

Falling millage rates and rising home prices feed each other, turning the property tax from a stable cost into an accelerator of the housing cycle.

Rising housing supply across the South and Mountain West is eroding the price cushion that protects mortgage lenders. UFA's Residential Supply Index shows where default risk is likely to surface first.

Local home price cycles—not national trends—drive equity, negative equity, and default risk, which means mortgage models need local price paths, not national aggregates, to get it right.

Applying ForeScore to a 37-million-loan mortgage dataset improved pool valuation by up to 380 basis points.

Borrowers with identical credit scores can carry up to five times the default risk depending on where they live.

Mortgage default is a local event, not a national one: and models built on national averages miss the risks that matter most.