The Research Behind ForeScore

Published studies, market indices, and the academic history behind UFA's approach to local mortgage risk.

Toward a Unified Theory of Real Estate Pricing: Why Price Dynamics Need Fundamental Value

Price models say prices revert to fundamental value but rarely define it. This paper draws on urban economics to supply that anchor.

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UFA National Default Risk Index

UFA's quarterly index tracking national default risk — and why sharp regional divergence means the national number tells only part of the story.

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Deconstructing a Mortgage Meltdown

The peer-reviewed study decomposing the 2008 crisis into two forces — underwriting quality and economic conditions — and how each contributed independently to the collapse.

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Beyond the Borrower: How Place Exposes Mortgage Risk

Dennis Capozza on the three decades of research — and one personal encounter with a 22% mortgage rate — that led to ForeScore.

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