Custom Portfolio Analysis
Your portfolio, run through our models. No software to license, no integration project - just answers.
Send us your loan tape, and UFA returns a complete forward-looking analysis of your portfolio: expected defaults, prepayments, cumulative losses, and loan-level value, simulated under a realistic range of economic scenarios. Every loan is evaluated on all four drivers of performance - the borrower, the product structure, the collateral, and the local economy - using the same ForeScore™ models and ZIP-level ForeScores that underpin the UFA Default Risk Index.
The result is analysis you can act on. Lenders use it to set loss reserves and benchmark originators, channels, and pricing cells against expected performance. Investors use it to evaluate whole-loan and securitized pools before committing capital - including pool curves, loss timing, and valuation of retained interests under alternative economic scenarios. Services and portfolio managers use it to find the segments quietly eroding profitability, and the ones worth growing. Available for both mortgage and auto portfolios.
Engagements are confidential and typically turn around in a few weeks from data delivery. You'll receive a written report, loan-level output files your team can load directly into your own systems, and a working session with UFA's principals - economists who have been modeling the geography of credit risk since 1990 - to walk through the findings.
Put your portfolio to the test
Tell us about your portfolio and your questions. We'll scope the analysis and give you a fixed quote - usually within two business days.
The ForeScore System
Underlying the ForeScore™ system is a unique approach to loan analysis that evaluates not only borrower credit but also the product structure, the collateral, and the current and forecasted local economic conditions. The approach is illustrated below.
The ForeScore™ System Components
The ForeScore™ Risk Analyzer
The ForeScore™ Risk Analyzer is the most accurate way to set loss reserves and pool performance expectations. This powerful tool helps manage economic risks proactively. The ForeScore™ Risk Analyzer takes loan information and combines it with the regional economic data and state-of-the-art analysis provided by UFA. The performance of each loan or pool of loans is simulated under a realistic range of economic conditions. The outputs from the analysis are the expected static pool cumulative losses for the pool as well as annual loss expectations under the specified economic conditions. The value at risk can be determined by simulation methods over likely states of the world.
This tool is invaluable for securitizers who can use it to generate pool "curves" and pool performance projections. When coupled with a bond model, retained tranches like IO strips or residuals can be valued under a variety of economic scenarios. Risk analyzer is now available for both auto and mortgage loans.
The ForeScore™ Loan Analyzer
The ForeScore™ Loan Analyzer is UFA’s decisioning tool. The Loan Analyzer receives loan data from a lender’s origination system and processes the loan information with UFA’s economics data and analysis. ForeScore can return either an automated decision to the origination system or a detailed risk analysis of the prospective loan for evaluation by an underwriter. The analysis returned includes expected defaults, prepayments and expected static pool losses as well as an analysis of the borrower, the collateral, the product structure and the economic prospects for the specific location. Only ForeScore provides you such insightful analysis and deep understanding of your loan applications.
Most important, however, is the ValueScore™, which measures the profitability of each loan based on monthly cash flows and costs. The ValueScore allows the underwriter to not only accept and reject loans but also restructure marginal loans for profitability. Now available for both auto and mortgage loans.
The ForeScore™ Portfolio Analyzer
The ForeScore™ Portfolio Analyzer is designed to assist lenders with profitability analysis, benchmarking, product pricing, product design and marketing. ForeScore Portfolio Analyzer is a powerful and versatile operations management tool that makes analysis of a loan portfolio simple, fast and easy. Loans can be grouped by segment (e.g., by pricing cell, by location, by originator, by manager, etc.) and analyzed in detail. The expected performance of each group can be calculated and compared. For example, a lender might find that loans from one originator or channel are more profitable than another. Strategies can then be devised to improve poor performers and reward the best performers. Now available for both auto and mortgage loans.
Strategy
UFA can help you increase revenues, reduce costs and control risks with our:
Our expertise benefits lenders through better:
The following UFA projects illustrate applications of UFA’s analysis: